Are Bots / Farmers a Threat to the Diablo 3 Economy?
Posted 8 April 2012 by Azzure

Botting and “overseas” farmers have been a hot topic in almost every popular online RPG that has some kind form of Economy. With the introduction of Real Money Transactions in Diablo 3, the issue of botting and farming has huge significance to Diablo 3 in particular.

We are often asked questions about how much of an impact bots and farmers have on the economy. For clarification, when we use the word “farmers” in this article, we are referring to overseas organizations whom farm the game for in-game items and currency, and sell it to local players (North American / European players respectively) for a profit. A lot of players fear that overseas farming organizations will find Diablo 3 to be a very attracting game for them to operate in due to sanctioned Real-money Transactions. In essence, they have a green light to farm and sell items to players. So how will botting and farming affect Diablo 3?

To answer this question, we must firstly look at the how rather than the what. Overseas farmers make utilize extensive use of botting, as botting maximizes efficiency and increases profitability. Typically, these organizations assign 1 employee per several dozen bots to basically monitor and keep all the bots functioning. It is somewhat of a past-time to see actual humans doing the farming one-by-one. In fact, it is almost a certainty that without the extensive use of bots, these organizations would not be cost-effective to operate, as it would require them to use actual people to farm the game by hand.


So realistically, the question is more about bots rather than the farmers themselves, as the bots are the how. Which begs the question: Are bots a threat to Diablo 3?

In my opinion, bots/farmers will not harm Diablo 3′s upper-economy. The term “upper economy” is defined as the end-game item market, basically the items you deal with when you are at max level. To put that in perspective, the upper-economy is what the vast majority of transactions will consist of, as the end-game is where the item-game really begins. One could say that the upper-economy is THE economy, and the only one that actually matters and has meaninging. As an example, the low-level crafting materials are only used for the low levels so after the first month they won’t be meaningful to the game, where as the end-game materials will be used extensively for years to come as people perfect their gear.

The reason I believe that bots won’t harm the end-game is simple: Bots do not have any chance of surviving Inferno, or even late-hell.

To illustrate why bots have no chance of surviving Inferno mode, I’ll need to explain how bots function.

In MMO’s, (I’ll use WoW as an example as that is the biggest and has many botters) the environments and monster paths are static, meaning that one can easily see where certain monsters spawns and that never changes. This is important because bots are scripted actions that are coded to do the same actions repeatedly. The second significant difference is that combat in an MMO is extremely slow-paced and almost turn-based. Attacks are done one at a time, targets are static and do not require aiming at. You basically select the target and your character automatically attacks it. The monsters are also very generic, only attacking you with a basic attack and have very little variation. With these concepts combined, you have a very high level of predictability when designing a bot. You know where the monsters are, what they are, you only need to target one at a time and you simply need to instruct the bot to attack with a generic spell or ability. Very little can go wrong, and the bot is very much safe.

In Diablo 3, it is the polar opposite. Combat is extremely fast-paced, requiring swift logical actions and response/awareness to what is happening. In the later difficulties, you can simply die in a matter of 3 seconds by running in to the wrong spot. In addition, environments AND monster spawns are randomized so you have no idea what, or even how many monsters you’re going to encounter.

Designing a bot for this type of gameplay is like trying to create a human robot. The Japenese have been trying for decades, but at the end of the day if there is a hump in the floor, the bot is going to fall over.

So I hear some of you saying “But what about Diablo 2? That had bots and its fast-paced and random”.

The answer to that is a number of differences between Diablo 2 and Diablo 3. Firstly, Diablo 2 had bots that were specialized to target specific areas of the game that were static. The most popular example is Pindlebot. Pindlebot would enter a portal from town that led to a static building that had literally a single pack of monsters to kill, including a mini-boss. The bot simply needed to perform a very basic set of instructions, enter portal, run 50 paces, spam X ability for 5 seconds, collect loot. Logout. Repeat.

This worked for two reasons, 1) Pindleskin was easy and your character could kill the pack with extreme ease. 2) The environment and accessibility to Pindleskin was static.

Diablo 3 addresses both of these issues plus more. There are no easy-access bosses in static environments, and Inferno is supposedly extremely challenging. You can’t outlevel and grossly outgear end-game sub-bosses / named monsters like you could in Diablo 2. You can’t kill a boss in a matter of seconds with no risk to yourself, and finally, named monsters are completely random and non-static, and have 4 random affixes in inferno. So you might see the boss there one game, and gone the next. Or you might see a boss but he’ll have 4 completely random affixes that require TOTALLY different strategy to defeat them. On top of that, the best loot comes from totally random champion / boss packs. Their locations are totally random and cannot be predicted.

The last point I’ll make on why I think botting won’t significantly harm the Diablo 3 Economy is because Blizzard intend on supporting the game and its economy thanks to the Real Money Auction House. It is in their interest to keep the Diablo 3 Economy safe and uncompromised, and they invested in it. And to put it plainly, they will likely support the game with more “care” than they did with Diablo 2, which all but lost its development team due to problems within the company.

There will undoubtedly be “tricks” and “legal” exploits that will crop up that may harm the economy. In fact, some have already have been found in the beta. But I feel confident that Blizzard are watching closely and will rectify these problems very quickly

With all that said though, there is an area in the economy that won’t be as well-shielded as end-game items are. And that my friends is Gold. Gold can be farmed from the easiest part of the game, so level 60 bots can very easily mow through that content without risk of death, and farm gold effectively. I personally don’t know what Blizzard have planned to prevent this from becoming a widespread problem – it is easily doable by sending a level 60 bot in to level 10 content. There is no risk of death and the things I mentioned above do not apply to this.

Tagged As: | Categories: Currency, Items, Market News, RMAH | 27 Comments

New Unrevealed Crafting Item in Latest Patch, Big Implications on Economy & Crafting
Posted 25 March 2012 by Azzure

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A new item called Tome of Secrets is now showing on the official Diablo 3 website. This item is rare quality, and appears to be an additional ingredient in every Artisan recipe from Rank 8+, even Gem upgrades. They are also used for leveling up the Artisans in the later levels.

This has interesting implications on the Diablo 3 economy. It was fully expected that Blizzard would have a higher-rank item to replace the Pages / Tomes of Training, but to include them in actual recipes was anything but expected. This in essence may place a soft-cap on Crafting, as these ingredients are Rare quality, universal and only drop from high-level monsters (I’d assume). The market would be very thirsty for these items I would imagine, and the fact that they are Rare quality seems to imply that they rare. Yes, salvage materials are also rare (for Rare recipes), but they can be created from all Rare items and are tied to difficulty level, and don’t need to be specifically dropped. They are also not used for cross-artisan recipes, like these Tome’s are.

If anyone has any other ideas on why Blizzard added these ingredients to the higher-level recipes, rather than just jacking up the amount of existing materials needed, I’d love to hear them in the comments below!

Tagged As: | Categories: Items | 8 Comments

Gameranx Article on Reasons RMAH May Fail, Warning – Terrible, facepalm article
Posted 21 March 2012 by Azzure

Another day and another one of these ill-informed, terrible articles that were clearly written by someone who has played way too much WoW and not nearly enough Diablo. And as usual,the author was way too confident about their knowledge of the game and/or in-game economies. A warning to readers: Reading his article may reduce your IQ by a few points. But if you enjoy watching someone humiliate themselves, it’s a great read.

In the article, the author states 4 “big problems” with the RMAH and why it may cause it to fail. Myself and Flux both struggled to find any validity and any worthwhile content in any of the 4 points he made.

In his first point, he basically makes the argument that Blizzard should’ve sold all items themselves in some kind Blizzard-run item-shop, similar to those found in Pay 2 Win Korean MMO’s, and alludes to them making a big mistake by not doing this and allowing the players to drive the economy. He cites that the sole reason Blizzard didn’t do this is because they were afraid of people thinking they were cashgrabbing. Unfortunately for the author, he fails to mention the glaring reason why Blizzard would never do this, and that reason being it would break the entire game from top to bottom and result in the worst Blizzard title in history.

Worse yet, he continues to make terrible arguments on why not having a Blizzard item-shop is bad for the game:

It also opens up some fairly big loopholes in the system. A seller could, for example, use bids from alternate accounts to force prospective buyers into an artificial bidding war and drive the cost up above reasonable market value. A dedicate group could also work to corner the market on some rarer, more valuable items, then use their monopoly to drive up prices. I have the utmost faith that Blizzard will work hard to diminish this sort of behavior, but it seems a bit silly to spend so much time regulating the system when they could save themselves and the players a lot of trouble by simply offering an static alternative to the auction house

For starters, all Commodities in the Diablo 3 RMAH are sold in a pool, not an auction, so shill-bidding would only “affect” equipment, which is highly randomized. Market value refers to the value the market as a whole gives an object, so if some guy decides to “shill-bid” on his own item, and than someone else comes along and outbids it, than that player is happy and willing to pay for the item at that price. This isn’t a “loophole”, this is economics. An object is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Simply jacking up the bid with another account does nothing but risk you winning your own item and paying an additional fee on top of it, and certainly doesn’t increase its “market value”.

Shill-bidding has been around since Ebay started and does not cause any significant issues. In fact, it can cause the malicious user to lose money more often than not from having to pay a fee for bidding too high on their own item. The cornering the market thing is even funnier, considering that items always drop at the same rate, hence this will never work, not to mention the sheer amount of capital you’d need to even dent the market value of commodities.

In his second point, he slams the use of fees by Blizzard for item sales. But interestingly, offers no alternative form of monetization, but instead goes on a anti-capitalist rant about the ethics of capitalism and businesses making a profit. (How dare they!!!1)

And it gets worse. In “problem 3″, he goes on to criticize the ability to buy and sell gold in the RMAH. The most staple feature of the RMAH, and the most obviously-needed feature in the RMAH.

And finally, in his last “problem with the RMAH” point, he criticizes PvP’s role in the RMAH. I should point out that it is utterly hilarious, because he unknowingly contradicts his first point about the “Blizzard should have an item shop” in this last point, by saying that the ability to buy items breaks PvP and makes it unfair and leads to the RMAH “failing”. Yet, in his first point, he says Blizzard should sell items in infinite quantities to everyone.

Tagged As: | Categories: RMAH | 16 Comments

Diablo 3 Release Date Announced
Posted 15 March 2012 by Azzure

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In case you live under a rock, or you love this site so much that you don’t look at anything else, the Diablo 3 release date has been set to May 15th. 2012 that is.

World peace soon to follow.

Tagged As: | Categories: Uncategorized | No Comments

SEA/Australian Players will Connect to US RMAH, Servers
Posted 15 March 2012 by Azzure

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Blizzard just sent out a note stating that by default, SEA/AU/NZ players will use the North American Auction House and play on North American servers.

Blizzard Quote:
We’re in the process of updating the regional section of the Auction House FAQ with the below changes to the home region that South East Asia, Australia, and New Zealand will be connecting to for Diablo III.

If I live in Australia/New Zealand/Southeast Asia, what server will I play Diablo III on?
Diablo III players in Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia will, by default, connect to the Americas region. By connecting to this region, players will have a wider pool of people to play with and access to a more vibrant and active auction house marketplace. Further details on regional connection options and auction house functionality will be posted at www.diablo3.com prior to release.

How does this impact the items I have purchased in the auction house?
Auction house purchases are bound to the servers in the region in which they’re bought. Any items acquired on game servers in the Americas region are bound to those servers and are not transferrable to the servers in Europe or Asia (and vice versa). Please keep this in mind when making purchases in the auction house. We’ll release more details on the auction house functionality prior to the game’s release.

Please note that as these updates suggest, there will be some options with regard to the regions. We’ll be providing further information on those options, and answering any questions you may have on this change to your Diablo III home region as we get closer to release.

This is very much expected, as Australian’s and New Zealanders have a long history of playing on American servers with Americans, than on Asian servers with some non-english speaking players.

And because SEA Battle.net region has 1/50th of the population of the NA region.

Tagged As: | Categories: RMAH | 5 Comments

Auction House Receives Major Update in Patch 14, Video
Posted 12 March 2012 by Azzure

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As predicted earlier, the Auction House has received a major upgrade to the newest version. The new AH is MUCH more polished and robust as the previous version, and contains a slick new interface, more search options and loading progress bars when listing items.

I was going to try and write an article and capture screenshots, but nearly everything has changed so I made a video instead. Enjoy!

 

 

 

 

Tagged As: | Categories: Currency, Items, RMAH | 6 Comments

Patch 14 – Economy Changes, Gold Drops Changed, AH Updates
Posted 9 March 2012 by Azzure

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*Update 1: Gold drop frequency appears to have been lowered in destructibles, however the actual amount of gold is MUCH higher. Also, the price for everything has gone up drastically. Crafting, leveling up Blacksmith and Stash size upgrades have had their gold costs all dramatically increased. Looks like Gold is once again valuable.

*Update 2: The Auction House is still unavailable hence why there haven’t been any screenshots posted. Stay tuned.

Patch 14 is due out in a couple of hours, and the patch notes have just been released. It appears that they have made some big tweaks to the gold Economy in the game:

Blizzard Quote:
Several aspects of the game economy have been adjusted, including but not limited to:
- Gold drops
- Item sale values
- Vendor costs
- Repair costs

What does that mean? Perhaps gold drops are now scarcer and don’t drop like sprinkles?

Also, the Auction House has been updated with a handful of changes:

Blizzard Quote:

- The Sell interface has been updated to better match the in-game inventory and stash
- Combined the advanced and basic search features
- The Active auctions tab now allows users to see all active auctions
- Searches for recipes and tomes have been added

I will update this post with screenshots and more info when the patch is live.

Tagged As: | Categories: Currency, Items, RMAH | 6 Comments

New RMAH Fees Changing the Item-sales Demographic?
Posted 1 March 2012 by Azzure

With the latest Real Money AH fees standing at $1.25 per item with no listing fee, the types of items that are suitable to be listed in the RMAH has changed considerably. Prior to this change in fee structure, it cost 15c to list an item, and a further 65c if the item sold, for a total of 80c. This of course generated a kind of “gamble” when listing items, as they could potentially not sell and cause you to be out of pocket 15c (devastating right?) The latest fee structure eliminates that risk, but at the cost of paying an extra 45c in fees. While that is probably a smarter and more desirable system, it also causes the side-effect of people listing junk in the hope that it will sell, as there is no risk to them.

So at a $1.25 fee, what kind of items will be viable to sell in the RMAH rather than the GAH? In short, a very small amount of them.

I can’t help but think that Blizzard may have cost themselves a lot of revenue, not just because of this latest change, but because of the stance on keeping fees static and not Percentage based. The only items that are worth selling with such high static fees are items worth $3.00+. Such items will almost always be equipable items, and quite uncommon. This virtually cuts out the millions of micro-transactions that selling Commodities would have offered, and that is A LOT of revenue. Perhaps the cost-per-transaction for Blizzard is much higher than they expected and smaller micro-fees are not viable?

It seems that Blizzard have moved the RMAH to a more specialized role, providing a market-place for good items only, and deferring everything else to the in-game gold Economy via the GAH. While this move will lighten the load on the RMAH, it also looks to be a massive revenue killer for them. Instead of tens/hundreds of thousands of items being listed and sold for real money every day for small amounts of cash, this number would fall to merely a few thousand (if not a few hundred) of higher value items.

One thing that does baffle me is that in the current Beta, selling Commodities and Gold on the RMAH still says “15% fee”. Blizzard have stated multiple times that the fees will all be static, and have not singled out anything to be an exception to that rule. It does however, make perfect sense that Commodities should not have a static $1.25 fee, but rather a % based fee as Commodities have greatly varying values. A Fallen Tooth may be worth 30c, while a Fiery Brimstone may be worth $5.00. It doesn’t really make sense to slap on a huge fee on the cheaper Commodities, as it will exclude nearly everything except a tiny minority of Commodities to be viable on the RMAH. Unless of course, that is the intention, and they want the GAH to be the main source of commodity trading.

Assuming that Blizzard sticks with the $1.25 fee on everything (including commodities and Gold), my projections on the revenue generated from the RMAH is much lower than I initially expected. Under this fee structure, I wouldn’t expect to see much more than several thousand items a day being sold in the US region. So lets do a quick calculation:
6,000 items sold every 24 hours.
20,000 units of gold sold every 24 hours.

Total: $11,862,500 per year in US region AH fees.

After you account for expenses, maintenance, running costs, accounts/customer service etc. This isn’t very profitable when you consider games like World of Warcraft, which pull in 100x that.

 

Tagged As: | Categories: Currency, Items, RMAH | 12 Comments

Auction House in Internal Build Much more Evolved than Beta Version
Posted 28 February 2012 by Azzure

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The AH in the Beta hasn’t received a major update since the addition of commodities many months ago. Blizzard have quoted numerous times that certain issues are resolved internally, yet these same fixes haven’t found themselves in any subsequent Beta patches. Odd isn’t it?

As many people have observed, there are many missing features in the AH. Advanced search for starters, and many aspects of the normal search function are incomplete and in the case of equipment, inadequate. Yet, in the last 4+ months, no updates were made to this clearly inadequate Beta AH. Why are Blizzard not updating the Beta AH?

In addition, the Beta is being stress-tested daily, which is usually the final stages of an implementation. It seems clear that the Auction House is intentionally not being updated in the public Beta, and we may not see the final evolved version until release. The reason for this though, I am unsure of.

Perhaps for security reasons, or maybe they are (and have been) power-developing a very enhanced version of it as we speak and will update it publicly when its 100% solid? I guess we will know for sure soon.

Tagged As: | Categories: RMAH | 8 Comments

Patch 13 RMAH Changes, Screenshots
Posted 19 February 2012 by Azzure

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Patch 13 is upon us and there have been a few changes to the Auction House. The biggest addition has been the availability of the GAH and the RMAH together. Most of the other changes were reported on earlier in this article.

Here are some screenshots of some the UI changes in the AH:

Changing between the RMAH and the GAH:

The new Crafting Search menu. Much better.



Update 1:
Interestingly enough, selling Commodities and Gold in the RMAH still has a % based fee (15%). This makes sense, since $1.25 fee would be more expensive than most commodities total selling price. However the minimum listing amount is still $1.00

I will be updating this post with any new info. Stay tuned.

Tagged As: | Categories: RMAH | 2 Comments